Sunday, February 26, 2023

A Message For Writers

First, an observation, then an epiphany...

Everyone knows that literary one-hit wonders exist (writers who write one book and find attention and success). But one-hit wonders are quite rare. If you go back through history, you'll find that most of the one-hit wonders are soon forgotten. Yet would-be writers still think about writing a single book. You could write the next To Kill A Mockingbird or Gone With The Wind. But your odds of success would be vanishingly small.


In the past, I've said that writers shouldn't think about writing one book. They should think about writing a shelf full of books. If you want success, the need for this approach is increasing. And that is the point of this post. I'm beginning to think that the number of books you have, and the frequency with which you publish them, makes more difference to your success than most anything else. (Yes, the books still need to be good. Yes, you have to have professional covers. And yes, your books probably shouldn't be 140-page novellas masquerading as novels, as the bad reviews reveal that readers are unhappy with what one reviewer called "pretend novels.")

It takes very little research (poking around on Amazon will do it) to see that nearly all successful writers have a dozen or more books. The most successful writers have far more. In my experience, every successful writer I know has at least a dozen books. (Look at your own favorite writers!)

Today, writing a shelf full of books is almost a requirement to find success in the book business.

Here's where my epiphany comes in:

Writing a lot of books generates success. Every writer I know who's written a dozen or more books has found success!

In other words, if you do write many books, you will find success. Put in the work, you will succeed. That can't be said about all fields of complex work. Writing novels is a complex undertaking. But with sufficient practice, it can be learned. In fact, it has to be learned. People aren't born with writing talent. In the same way a coordinated person cannot simply strap on a snowboard and then do a triple twisting, double back flip off the half-pipe, a writer has to learn the skill. Yet writing can be learned. And with enough work, it will be learned.

The idea that every writer should stop thinking about a single book and instead think of many books may be the single most important aspect of finding writing success.

I should probably put in a qualifier and say that it would be best if those dozen books are in a single genre, comprise some kind of series or two, and need to have been written in a relatively short time frame, like a book or two a year or faster. A dozen books strung out over 40 years won't cut it.

It's possible that there are people who've written a dozen books and haven't found success, but I haven't met or even heard of one, at least not one in the self-publishing era. 

Why is this, that simply writing a dozen books will bring you success? I don't know. But it's probably that a dozen books will give you a mixture of substantial writing skills, teach you how the book business works, and, most important, you will spend thousands of hours thinking about what works for readers and then trying to craft your prose to fit what you've learned.

Should you start trying to publish before you've written a bunch of books? I think not. Readers are looking for multi-book authors. They don't pay attention to single-book authors. Why? Probably because there are too many of them. Write one book, you have millions and millions of competing authors. Write a dozen books, you have relatively little competition.

I recently read that fantasy superstar Brandon Sanderson wrote 12 novels before he showed any of them to an editor. Hugh Howey wrote 20 novels before he ventured away from his desk. 

By comparison, I only wrote six, the last two of which became the first two in my series. But that was in another era. If I were starting out these days, I would write a dozen. 

Yet another perspective is to realize that, if you're going to be a success, you will end up writing many, many novels. So why bang your head against the publication wall with just one book? Assume you'll be successful, which means you will write a bunch of books. So write a dozen of them first, and then venture forth into the book world. You will be amazed at the difference as you proceed with a substantial body of work, while you watch others struggle trying to find traction with a single book.

Is writing a dozen books hard? Yes, of course. So is studying to become a neurosurgeon or a lawyer or a competetive snowboarder or opera singer or a Shakespearean actor. All worthwhile skills take enormous amounts of time and effort to acquire. But most serious skills produce great reward, whether financial, emotional, or other.

Writing is one of those skills. If you investigate careers that successful writers have abandoned, you find all manner of occupations. It's worth noting that writers don't quit to become doctors or professors or attorneys. But if doctors, professors, and attorneys find success writing, they often quit their former careers. What does that say about the rewards of writing? It says this: Writing is a very attractive job. So get going on those first dozen books!


Sunday, February 19, 2023

Birds Are Amazing

We all know that birds can astound. I just read a book that explains some of the why and how and where.

The stories you'll end up talking about at the dinner table are numerous. The bird's migrations are nearly unbelievable.

Because birding scientists now have minitature tracking devices they can attach to birds, they've learned that their previous ideas about how far birds migrate are very much understated. There are birds that fly 50,000 miles a year. There are birds that take to the air and don't land for months. There are birds that live in one small area during our spring and summer (breeding season) and then fly halfway around the world each year to another small area in our fall and winter. (And some of them have a second breeding season for the Southern Hemisphere's spring and summer. The precision of their travels is astounding.

Take California's Swainson's Hawk, a big population of which, during our spring and summer, live in a small valley north of Mount Shasta. Come fall and winter, they fly 9,000 miles one way to a small valley in Argentina. As spring returns to the north, the birds fly back. Each year, they repeat. The round trip is 18,000 miles.

There are too many such stories to recount. I'll let you dive into the book and enjoy what you learn.

I highly recommend A World On The Wing. I was amazed. I think you will be too. 





Sunday, February 12, 2023

Just How Old Is My Computer?

 My wife and I have lots of computers. Ten, at last count. Several are old desktops. Some are laptops. Some are old, some new. (You can't beat an old computer for its software, and you can't beat a new little Chromebook for traveling.) 

We keep the old computers because they've got valuable software we still use. (We hate the planned obsolescence of the tech companies, when they quit supporting older software and force people to throw old computers into the landfill! Not only is it a crime against the Earth, it is terribly inconvenient for those of us who don't want fancy tools and just want to use the tools that work! For example, give me back my old email. I don't want fifteen thousand bells and whistles that take forever to load, are filled with bugs and glitches, and often crash. Yes, here's looking at you, Microsoft, and you, GoDaddy for forcing us to use the new Microsoft 365. I just want basic email. But of course, young software engineers seem to universally fall for the concept of putting every possible feature into every possible program.)

We also have an old MacBook for its old Photoshop software. We also have two old Windows 7 laptops we use for general office work. 

But our favorite computer is an old, huge Dell with Windows XP. We bought it in the early 2000s and got a large Epson scanner to accommodate my wife's smaller paintings. 

When we bought the Dell, we'd already heard stories about viruses, so we made the decision to never to put that computer online. Guess what? It's still running. No online access means no viruses and no problems. I had to replace the internal clock battery a couple of years ago, but otherwise the computer's been perfect, 20 years later.

Of course, it's irreplaceable. You can't use the old Epson scanner with a new computer. And, Adobe, in their infinite stupidity, made it so their new Indesign software can't read the old Indesign files. Can you imagine how idiotic that is? So even if I wanted to get the new software, it would do me no good with my old book files. I'd love to have a word with Larry Ellison over that decision. It would be like buying a new car that won't drive on older roads. 

There is one amusing aspect to it. Among other things I do with that old computer is spell check my manuscripts before I convert them into PDF files. The software is good and thorough, and its architecture, though confusing, still works. In the process, I do some "time travel." Old Indesign software doesn't know what a landline is. It doesn't know what a selfie is. It doesn't know what an influencer is. It doesn't know binge-watch or a hundred new terms. The list is long and a bit like a digital archeology dig. But the computer works!

I'm very much hoping our Windows XP computer lasts another 20 years!


Sunday, February 5, 2023

Drought? Going...Going... Not Gone Yet

 If you check out the national drought monitor map, you'll see that California has gone from "We're drying up and blowing away" (dark brown on the map) to "We've got a bunch of snow and water, but please don't stop the storms just yet." Nevada, Utah, and the prairie states 1000 miles to the east are much worse off.

The U.S. Drought Monitor is jointly produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Map courtesy of NDMC.

The Drought Monitor doesn't just look at how much snow or rain has fallen (the snow at our house is up to the second floor) but also looks at the reservoirs and other aspects of drought. According to a reservoir tracking website: https://engaging-data.com/ca-reservoir-dashboard/ our current reservoir storage in California reservoirs is at 94% of historical average. Which means we're still not up to the normal storage for this time of year. But we're getting closer! Stay tuned...

Sunday, January 29, 2023

Vacationers, Count Your Blessings

 Snow is fun to play in. Epic snow even more so. And if you're staying in lodging with a wood fireplace, it's nearly perfect.


For Tahoe locals, those things have to be maintained, and it ain't always easy.

Our wood stove chimney pipe has been ripped off the roof three times in one month. Thank you "Epic Snow" for sliding down a very steep roof.

Each time, I snowshoe up onto the roof to fix it. Yes, you read that correctly. We live in an especially snowy part of Tahoe, and the snow is up to the second floor and higher in some places.

I strap on my tool belt, grab a metal shovel, and slog my way through bottomless snow and up onto the roof to try to shovel out the area where the brackets that support the stove pipe have torn off the roof. All the while, I'm trying to gauge which way I'm going to dive if the snow above me decides to avalanche down on me. I even keep my phone in my pocket with the location setting turned on in case I end up under 10,000 pounds of snow with broken bones. My lame idea being that if I get buried, I might still be able to reach my phone and dial 911. Ha ha.

Each time I reattach the chimney, I use beefier lag screws and brackets. Each time, I hope maybe this time the chimney will stay put until summer when I can redesign the entire support bracing.

You may be thinking, why not just call in a roofing contractor to fix it? I have. They don't have a good system for custom chimney supports. And they're too busy with worse problems, like roofs that have been caved in by falling trees that collapsed under the epic snow load.

In the meantime, we'll double check that the chimney is solidly in place before we light a fire. We won't light a fire during a storm when snow is accumulating. And once it accumulates, we won't light a fire until we clear the roof near the chimney.

 And, of course, we always keep two fire extinguishers nearby.

But hey, Epic snow is great.




Sunday, January 22, 2023

Big Snow Still Isn't A Record?

 One of the significant measurements of this season's snowfall so far (November to mid-January) says the Tahoe Basin has gotten 30 feet of snow.

No small thing, that!

What's interesting to me, is that amount isn't a record. Just another mid-season measurement in a very snowy place!

We're eager for a period of sunny days to get streets cleared up.

But come another week or so, we'll be ready for more. 

Bring it on...




Sunday, January 15, 2023

Too Much Snow

 Other places in California have too much water. The rivers can't carry it away fast enough, so it floods.

In Tahoe, we have too much snow. The snowplows push it into huge berms. Then the rotary plows shoot it into dump trucks. Long lines of dump trucks. But they can't carry it away fast enough. So the streets clog up.

We have many neighborhoods where there are only a few narrow one-lane paths. They produce gridlock because cars can't fit by each other in the street.

The snow is pretty, and it is wonderful to ski on and play in. It is also wonderful that we are building up a decent snowpack.

But we're hoping for a break in the weather so we can clear it away.

If you come to Tahoe before that happens, you may be profoundly disappointed. As a 32-year local, my recommendation is to wait.



Sunday, January 8, 2023

Want To Enjoy Tahoe? Then Come Some Other Time

 Lots of snow is great. But we have too much at the moment. The streets aren't cleared, there's no place to park, and you can't go anyplace without chains. We have laws that basically say, if you get stuck in the snow, it's your fault and you will be ticketed and towed. And if the plow comes by and buries you, you will have a major problem retrieving your car, which will be damaged. None of this adds uip to a fun ski getaway.

When the storms pause - next week? the week after? - Tahoe will be the greatest. Come then. You'll be glad you waited.

Sunday, January 1, 2023

How Do They Know The Drought Isn't Over?

 This last storm has dropped much rain and snow, and next week a new set of wet systems is supposed to head our way.

Add to that a previous, significant set of storms that made skiers and ski resorts happy.

From appearances, it appears the drought/no drought issue has moved into the 'If it looks like a duck, and quacks like a duck...' category.

So why do they say the drought isn't over?

It all gets down to the reservoirs. A few of the state's reservoirs look pretty decent. Folsom Lake for example. But the big ones, like Shasta, Trinity, and Oroville are still mostly empty. How much rain and snow will it take to refill those? LOTS.

So we'll enjoy the moisture we get, and the meteorologists will still say we're in a drought until those reservoirs fill up.



Sunday, December 25, 2022

Christmas Free Kindle Book Is Live

 If you're on my email list, you know this already. If not, my most recent title, TAHOE MOON, is free on Kindle through December 29th. This is a savings of $4.99.


If you'd like to download the free Kindle book, please click on the link above. That will take you the book page on Amazon, where you can get the book.

Some of you have wondered if this means I don't get paid for free book give aways. That's true. BUT, it helps me even more to have you download my free book, because Amazon compensates authors in other ways. So please take advantage of this offer, and email the info to your friends as well.

Thanks again, and have a great holiday!


Sunday, December 18, 2022

Coming December 25th: Free Kindle Book

One week advance notice... On Christmas, my latest book, TAHOE MOON, will once again be free on Kindle. If you don't have the Kindle app, you can download it for free onto your phone, your tablet, your computer, etc. Just do a Google search, i.e., "Kindle app for iPhone" and you should find an Amazon download. (For safety, I'd only download it from an Amazon site.)


TAHOE MOON will be free for five days. 

For what it's worth, this doesn't cost me anything. It actually helps me with regard to how Amazon presents their search results. So even if you've already read TAHOE MOON, you may want a copy in your Kindle library. Go for it. Send this info along to your friends as well.

Thanks again for your continued interest in the world of Owen, Spot, and the rest of the gang!




Sunday, December 11, 2022

Bring It On



The last storm left 3 feet on the walkway and almost 4 feet in the yard where it is shaded and wind-sheltered and the snow doesn't sink down so fast.

As this gets posted on Sunday morning, we'll be in the middle of what could be the biggest snow so far in the season. 3 more feet or so? One weather report said it was within the realm of possibility that we get 5 feet above 7000 feet (which is usually what we get at our house).

Hard to shovel but fun to play in. And so very pretty.

Here's hoping the Earth mother keeps it up.