Spring In The Fall

Speaking of snow - you do remember that I wrote about snow last week? - there are multiple places where we still have snowfields left over from last winter. The Crystal Range on the west side of Desolation Wilderness. Steven's Peak. Mt. Tallac even has a few patches left. Just a bit south of Tahoe in Hope Valley, you can see large snowfields on Roundtop and The Sisters, and on Highland Peak and Raymond Peak down by Markleeville.

Would you like a dose of Spring during the Fall? Hike up to one of those snowfields and look in the soil/Grus just to the edges of the snow. These are areas that were covered with snow a week or two ago and they have just melted. In those places, you'll find plants that have suddenly felt the warmth of the sun after being buried in snow for most of a year. Those plants have evolved to take advantage of this sudden, short "spring" in the beginning of November. They do a little bit of growing in the few hours of sunlight that they see each year. They have to be fast because they could get covered by snow any time and be buried again for 12 months. Or more.

Major Daily Temp Variation

Last week we had beautiful sunny days, but some really cold nights. Check out the National Weather Service report. 47 degree difference between day and night. You see this in high deserts. But you won't generally see it in the Midwest or Back East. And you'll never see it in the tropics.

P.S. While Tahoe has some high desert temperature characteristics, we usually get so much snow in the winter that our annual precipitation (water equivalent) is up there with places in the east that regularly get summer rain. Tahoe gets no summer rain outside of the rare thunderstorm.

The Sierra foothills to the west get even more precipitation, however that precip is mostly rain in the winter. It adds up to more precipitation than most places in the US outside of the Pacific Northwest. Parts of the West Slope of the Sierra average over 50 inches of precipitation.

I knew you'd want to know this...

Rats Driving Cars!

The news this week that scientists have observed pigs using tools - finding pieces of wood to dig with - comes as no surprise. The list of animals that use tools, which is considered a sign of high intelligence, is large.

But the news that scientists have taught rats to drive little cars is a real surprise. First of all, most of us probably have a hard time thinking of rats as smart like pigs or dogs or dolphins or all the primates. Second, it sort of elevates rats in our minds. We (I) simply don't think of rats the way we (I) think of dogs. (Maybe I don't want to.)

Here's what happened. Scientists at the University of Richmond developed little vehicles in which a rat could fit. They figured out a steering mechanism. Then they taught the rats to drive using Fruit Loops as a reward. The rats quickly figured it out.

When the researchers placed Fruit Loops in different places around the lab, the rats got very good at driving their cars to each different Fruit Loop, where they could stick their heads out the little car window and grab their treat.

The study didn't just end there. The scientists wondered if this new, complicated skill would stress the rats out. So they rigged them with sensors to study rat stress (mini EEGs). The results were the opposite of what they expected. As the rats zoomed around in their cars, looking for Fruit Loop treats, they actually got calmer.

Hey, it's relaxing to go out for a ride, right? 

If this experiment had been about teaching chimps or gorillas to drive, we'd be so pleased to watch the results.

But these are rats!

Wow. 

Rethinking How New Writers Should Think About A Writing Career

Last week, I was interviewed by a college student who wanted to know what a writing career entails. She wasn't asking about how to write. She was asking advice on how to have a career as a writer.

I've written many times about the importance of writing multiple books if you want a career as a novelist. For some reason, this recent interview put things in a clearer perspective for me.

Writing seems to be unique among creative endeavors in that people think they might like to write a book and then, before they've even started it, imagine that the book might get published, and they might find an audience, and then it might sell enough to bring in good money.

Just One Book??

Way back in the past, when people have asked me about the process, I didn't make a big deal out of the multiple books aspect. I thought it was best for people to run with their enthusiasm and not face any more hurdles than necessary. (Like the realization that one book won't do it.)

Not so far back in the past, I've been more forthright about the need for lots of books. But I haven't pushed it very hard. I was still trying to walk carefully so that I didn't dampen the writer's enthusiasm.

Over the years, I've now watched many writers produce one book, and sometimes two or three books, and then feel dejected and, sometimes, profoundly disappointed when the audience didn't materialize.

Am I doing someone a service by playing to the idea that a writer should dive into writing a book without considering up front that it is just the first brick in the building? After all, most writers need a lot of encouragement to follow through on such a long, complex project as writing a novel.

Or am I doing writers a disservice if I don't explain right up front that, statistically, a single book has just about zero percent chance of finding success. (Yes, some do, although many of those "one-book-success" stories aren't true and are merely spin put out by publishers who've dreamed up a new pseudonym for an experienced author.)

It's a tough choice. If I describe only the joys of writing, that helps a new writer be excited. But they may get through the work of writing a novel only to be devastated when they find out that one novel won't likely go anywhere. (Certainly my first didn't.)

If instead I'm realistic about the task ahead and think that new writers are best prepared for the journey by knowing that they will need many books, I will serve them well. But I risk discouraging a new writer who is excited about their first book idea.

I've often used the metaphor of the restaurant menu. If you want to find success in the restaurant business, you need a full menu. It's the same in any field.

No architect wannabe would ever dream that they could find success by sitting down at the kitchen table night after night and designing one significant building.
No doctor wannabe would ever think they could find success by watching Youtube videos of a complex surgery and then attempting to perform it. .
No athlete would ever think they could find success by entering one very difficult marathon.
No oil painter would ever think that they could find success by exhibiting just one show of paintings.
No astronaut would ever... You get the picture.

Yet, when you think about those examples, you realize that every architect/doctor/athlete always assumes from the beginning that they face a very long and tough slog to find success.

So why is it that writing is one of the only things where a majority of people who consider the idea of writing a book imagine that success could possibly come from that single book?

I've decided to change my approach. When I look at the pros and cons of advice about writing, I think I will be more direct about the need to write many books before one can hope for success. I'll model it on all the other professions. I'll phrase it in these terms: Writing novels must be done in significant numbers in order to gain traction. If you are prepared to put in that work, you will have good odds of success, and you will enjoy the world's greatest job, with the potential for unlimited rewards, both reader excitement, and freedom of schedule, and creative satisfaction, and income.

As a writer, this picture depicts your goal. Lots of books.

Every Writer Should Plan A Whole Lotta Books

Here's a closing question for all people who want to become writers. Think of your favorite writers. How many books have each of them written? There's your mission.

Maybe The Evil Power Company Ain't So Bad Afterall

As everyone knows, PG&E has gotten excoriated for all of its major mistakes and infrastructure problems that have led to deadly fires in the past.

One of the solutions was to anticipate Red Flag fire conditions and turn off the power lines that often spark the fires.

This last week, they did just that and, predictably, their turn-off procedure left something to be desired. In many cases they turned off the power nearly 24 hours before there was any wind. People were furious.

Turning this stuff on and off doesn't look very simple.

I'm no apologist for the power company. But I wondered if turning off power was not very easy to coordinate. For example, in our house, if you are worried about a fire in the back bedroom and you turn off the breaker that supplies the electricity to that bedroom, you end up also turning off power to the bathroom, where there may have been no fire concern.

In addition, the people working the switches to turn off power to ABCville probably aren't in ABCville and have never even been there. Hard for them to know the nuances of ABCville powerline risks etc.

Now that the Red Flag warning has passed, it seems that NorCal had no major powerline-caused blowups. Maybe no deaths from fire at all.

So while we're piling on our complaints about how PG&E handled the power shutdown, let's try to remember that.

Maybe, just maybe, PG&E succeeded at doing what everyone wanted them to do. Which is to minimize the fire risk to Northern California.

Writers and Persistence

Do you want to write novels? Perhaps no aspect of writing is more important than persistence.

Have you ever run a marathon? Talk about needing persistence.

There are lots of quotes about persistence, and most of them ring true. The most famous may be the one by Calvin Coolidge, who was our 30th president. 

Coolidge said, 

“Nothing in this world can take the place of persistence. Talent will not; nothing is more common than unsuccessful men with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not; the world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent.” (Read: Persistence is the single most important thing to getting your book done.) 

A shorter quote about persistence comes from Woody Allen.

"Eighty percent of success is just showing up." (Read: Just keep showing up at your writing desk - whatever that is - until you finish the book and, then, keep editing and rewriting until you make the book good.)

Shorter still is the famous Nike ad line "Just Do It." (Read: Just do it.)

For writers, the message is clear. 

Is there a single rigorous approach that gets the book done? No. For example, many times people assume that there are certain techniques that are critical to writing. Perhaps the most common is that you supposedly have to write a certain amount every day. While that may be smart, it isn't necessary. Although I work full time as a writer, I don't write every day. There are too many other writing-business chores to allow me the luxury of writing every day. A daily writing goal is great but hard to achieve. I still have a writing goal. It is annual rather than daily. I have to finish the book by a certain day each year. Then I have to do it again next year. Then again and again. Just do it.

Over time, my bookshelf grows.

Is there a good time to start this slow but steady creation? Yes.

RIGHT NOW. Just do it.

P.S. 

Many writers do two or more books a year. I'm more like the slow tortoise. I've only been doing one book a year. If you only average one page a day (or 7 pages a week), you can still write a book in a year. You could, for example, plan to get an entire month's worth of writing (30 pages) done in two intense days of creation. Having said that, I don't recommend that approach, as it moves perilously far afield from what works best for writers. Even slow writers know that writing every day is ideal.

So all of us who haven't gotten our book done need to remember Coolidge/Allen/Nike. Stop hesitating. Stop waiting for inspiration. Stop looking for the perfect moment/place/time to be a writer.

Just do it.

P.P.S. While I make no promises, I am writing more than one book a year, slowly building a second series. Check back in two or three years to see if it produces much of a result.

Candy Dance Rain, Wind, Snow

This weekend I'm exhibiting books at the 100th annual Candy Dance Festival in Genoa, Nevada, which is Nevada's oldest town.

The festival brings huge crowds. This weekend, the weather forecast is daunting. Cold, wet, windy, colder still, windier still. Sunday, it is supposed to snow, the high temp is supposed to be 38, and the winds are supposed to gust to 35 mph.

I guess I'll wear my ski suit. So I'll be there if you want to come out and brave the weather!

Snowing In Tahoe And Summer Ain't Over!

The SacBee headline last Monday was great. Six days left of summer and it's SNOWING IN TAHOE.

Nothing new for us locals. Here's the link:

https://www.sacbee.com/news/weather-news/article235155302.html

Check out the pics from High Camp at Squaw at 8200 feet. There's a shot of the swimming pool, and all the surrounding country is white.

South Lake Tahoe Whole Foods Update

There have been lots of rumors regarding the Whole Foods that is coming to South Lake Tahoe.

Here's what we know for sure:

The building is up.
The sign is up.
The lights are on inside.

Here's what we don't know for certain:
When is it going to open?

The answer according to the Whole Foods website is November.

So,  it's looking good. And we can probably assume it will happen.



Get ready for more food options during the coming holiday season,

Atmospheric Science And The Brilliance Of My Readers

Back in 2013, I wrote a blog about why it's usually colder in the mountains than in the valleys.
http://toddborg.blogspot.com/2013/01/why-are-mountains-colder-than-valleys.html
My focus, as I recall, was on the rate at which air cools as you gain elevation (roughly 4 degrees for every 1000 feet of altitude gain.)

I got some things right, but I got some major points wrong. Six years later, a reader I haven't met, Neal Mielke, wrote a response to that blog. He was gracious in his corrections, and I appreciated his input very much.

Neal's smarts are self-evident. After I wrote him back, I found out what I suspected - that he was a Physics major back in the day. (It must grate on fellows like Neal when a physics dilettante like me rambles on without expertise). So I print his response here.

Thanks again, Neal.

Here is his letter:

Hi Todd,

 

I just discovered your mystery novels, and your blogs, and I am enjoying both.  I’d like to comment on your 2013 blog about “why mountains are colder than valleys.”  OK, it’s an old blog, and I’m years late in making a comment.  But I just bought your 5th novel, and that’s even older, so hopefully you’ll forgive me. 

 

You wrote: “The simple only-kind-of-techy answer is that the lower you are the more atmosphere is above you, and the more the air gets squeezed by all the air above it. The molecules in compressed air have more energy and they bounce around faster than they do in air that isn't so compressed.”

 

Pressure being the root cause just isn’t right, and thinking that it is will lead a person to be confused about a lot of situations where higher pressure doesn’t correlate at all with higher temperature.  The air in a scuba tank isn’t hot, even though its pressure is more than 100 atmospheres.  There are also a bunch of real-world meteorological effects that would make no sense if higher pressure led to higher temperature:

 

1) Christmas Valley was colder than Echo Summit last night, even though Christmas Valley is lower

2) Frost often forms on valley bottoms when the nearby hilltops are frost-free

3) Meteorologists often refer to inversion layers, when warm air is above cold air

4) An upstairs loft in a townhouse or condo can be baking when the bottom level is cold

5) Once one hits the stratosphere, air temperature starts to rise with increasing altitude

6) Water temperature drops as one dives further below the surface of water, while pressure dramatically increases.

 

Thinking in terms of pressure also misses out on explaining why thunderheads form over mountains rather than valleys.  And why hawks (or a hanglider) circling overhead is a visual manifestation of the lapse-rate effect.  Understanding the reality behind the lapse rate is pretty cool, I think, and it’s worth really understanding it.

 

Localized heating combined with convective heat flow (warm air rising and cooling as it expands) is the real reason for all of this: the lapse rate effect that you blogged about, the seemingly contrary examples that I listed above, plus thunderheads and circling hawks.  If you want a simple non-techy answer to give people, it would be better to say “it gets colder as you go higher because you’re getting farther from the source of heat, which is the sun hitting and warming the Earth’s surface.”  The atmosphere is nearly transparent to the sun, which means that the sun warms the earth rather than the atmosphere directly.  The atmosphere gets warmed only indirectly, from contact with the surface.  When the surface air gets warmed it rises and carries heat higher into the atmosphere, so the whole atmosphere gets warmed.  You “see” that effect when you see hawks circling in a thermal – they’re riding the rising warm air.  The lapse rate of (about) 4 degrees per thousand feet exists because that’s the natural rate at which warm air rising cools as it expands.  That lapse rate can actually be calculated on a single sheet of paper, from a handful of equations including the Ideal Gas Law. 

 

  Think of the sun-baked earth (or surface of Tahoe) as a hot plate, and a lot of things will make sense.

 

Christmas Valley was colder than Echo Summit last night because the surface heating went away when the sun set – the hot plate got turned off.  Even more than that, the Earth’s surface radiates more infrared energy than the air does (otherwise night-vision goggles would see nothing but murky air).  So the surface cools faster than the air – the hot plate turns into a cold plate.  This cools the air in contact with the ground, and the cold air is stuck there because cold air wants to sink rather than rise.  Because of that there are no “reverse thermals” of warm air above flowing down to the ground.  The cold air clings to a narrow boundary layer close to the ground, trying to sink.  The cold air in Christmas Valley stayed there, and the cold air up on Echo Summit flowed down to join it.  That cold-air-flowing-downhill effect is the same reason why frost often forms on valley bottoms but not on hilltops.  And inversion layers happen because warm air rising is a one-way street.  If anything causes warm air to be above cold air, it’ll tend to stay that way.  Inversion layers are common in the morning, because of the cold-plate effect, and they can happen when a warm air mass moves sideways over a colder one.

 

Convection is also why upstairs lofts are hotter than rooms downstairs.  The warm air from the heat registers rises.  It wants to cool as it rises, but merely at 4 degrees per thousand feet, to that’s a negligible effect indoors.

 

Temperature starts rising with altitude once one reaches the stratosphere, because there’s actually a second hot plate up even higher.  That’s the ozone layer, which absorbs most of the sun’s UV energy.  Up there, the temperature rises with altitude because you’re getting closer to that source of heat.  It’s an inversion layer (higher temperatures at higher altitudes), so this is stable – the warmest air is generated way up high and it doesn’t want to sink.  Similarly, if you dive below the surface of the ocean (or Tahoe), it gets colder as you go deeper.  That’s because the heat source is above you where the sun hits the surface, and you’re getting farther away from it as you go deeper.  This too is an inversion layer.  Warmer water is less dense than colder water, so warmer water stays near the surface.  (This effect, famously, reverses near the freezing point, at which point colder water is actually less dense than slightly warmer water.  Everyone knows that ice floats, but water that’s very near freezing also floats to the top.)

 

What about those thunderheads?  Well, if you think about it, why should Tahoe be cooler than Sacramento, if sunlight is all that matters and pressure is irrelevant?  The sunlight at Tahoe is just as strong as in Sacramento.  Why doesn’t the surface of the Tahoe basin heat up to 100 degrees, the same as Sacramento?  Well, it would ... if you surrounded the Tahoe basin with a wall that extended up into the stratosphere (and made it transparent so that it didn’t block the sun).  But at 10,000 feet the temperature would be about 85 above Tahoe and 60 above Sacramento.  If the wall went poof, the warm Tahoe air would rise and the cold Sacramento air would rush in, because cold air is heavier than warm air.  This air movement would stop only when the temperature at 10,000 feet was the same in both places, which (because of the lapse rate) would mean that the temperature at Tahoe’s surface would be the same as above Sacramento at 6200 feet.  So, horizontal airflow guarantees that Tahoe is cooler than Sacramento.  There’s no wall going poof, so the effect is a gradual one, but it’s there, and it’s responsible for afternoon thunderheads.  The sun “tries” to heat the air at the summit of Mt. Tallac just as much as it’s heating the surface air in Sacramento.  But hot air at Tallac’s altitude doesn’t belong there – on all sides it’s surrounded by colder, denser air.  So when the sun is out there will always be a thermal rising from the summit of Mt. Tallac.  And if the humidity is right you’ll get a cloud forming above the peak.  Thunderheads form in the afternoons because the effect builds and builds as the day progresses, until the sun starts to set.

 

I hope that this is interesting to you, and not an annoyance.  Again, I’m enjoying your novels and your blogs.

 

Regards

 

Neal Mielke

(from the Bay Area ... love the Sierras though!)

Mountain View Art & Wine Festival Sept 7 & 8

This coming weekend my artist wife Kit Night and I are both exhibiting at the Mountain View Art & Wine Festival.

This is a candidate for the biggest art festival in Northern California - something approaching 600 artists. If you want to see a wide range of artists plus at least one author - me, come on down to Mountain View AKA Google Country. 

(For those interested in tech, Apple is just 5 miles to the southeast, Facebook is 5 miles to the northwest, and a thousand other tech companies populate the surrounding area.) 

The Mountain Art & Wine Festival is worth the visit. Sept 7, 8, 2019

Even Dogs Get Shut Out By Phones

We've all seen it, the couple or family at a restaurant, and one or more of them are on their phones. Anyone not on their phone, whether it's the husband or grandmother or little kid, is locked out of that world. They sit alone even as they should be part of the group.

It happens to dogs, too.

Dogs are very social and focused on people. It used to be that people were focused on dogs. Now it seems that people care more about what's on their phones. Dogs are shut out.

Maybe it's time that we rethink our priorities. Maybe a phone addiction should be treated like a cigarette addiction, limited to short periods of time, outside, away from other people and dogs. Others, people and dogs, don't want our secondhand smoke. They probably don't want our secondhand attention either.